Karan Singh Bagavathinathan
Ph.D. · Development, Macro & Urban Economist · Causal inference & machine learning for policy
I pair causal inference with machine learning to turn complex data into evidence for policy.
A development, macro, and urban economist working at the intersection of applied econometrics and modern data science — currently focused on inflation and monetary policy, real-time macro measurement (nowcasting), and the spatial and urban dynamics of growth, alongside long-standing work on labour markets and development.
Recent Research & AI
My recent work brings machine learning into the empirical economist’s toolkit — combining the causal-inference designs I’ve long relied on (regression discontinuity, difference-in-differences, instrumental variables) with predictive and AI-driven methods. The aim is the same as ever: cleaner identification, richer measurement, and evidence policymakers can act on.
Two threads sit closest to this today. First, inflation targeting under supply shocks — using large language models to read three decades of Reserve Bank of India communication, alongside my earlier Phillips-curve and inflation-modelling work. Second, nowcasting: Bayesian machine-learning models that turn high-frequency digital-infrastructure data (GST, UPI, credit) into real-time reads on the economy.
Work in Progress
Inflation Targeting in the Time of Supply Shocks: A Large-Language-Model Reading of India’s Reserve Bank, 1997–2025
with T. O. Sridevi · Using large language models to read three decades of Reserve Bank of India communication and trace how inflation targeting held up through successive supply shocks.
Reshaping India’s Urban Agglomerations: Satellite Footprints, Governance, Jobs, and Network Connectivity, 1990–2024
Satellite-anchored footprints of India’s 474 urban agglomerations, linked to household survey clusters, to trace how within-city governance shapes jobs, welfare, and connectivity.
Scheduled, Not Cyclical: What Germany’s Turn from Auto to Defence and AI Means for Nowcasting
Germany’s rotation from autos toward defence and AI changes the information structure of its business cycle: anticipated defence output carries no news at the nowcast horizon, while AI capital expenditure adds both signal and volatility.
Working Papers
with T. O. Sridevi · High-frequency GDP nowcasting from India’s digital infrastructure (GST, UPI, electricity, credit) using Bayesian ensemble methods.
Know the Economy, Not the Data Lake: Country Structure and the Right Number of Indicators in a GDP Nowcast
with T. O. Sridevi · How many indicators a nowcast should use is set by a country’s economic structure, not its data availability — tested across twelve economies through a bias–variance lens.
Political Reservation for Scheduled Castes and Business Exclusion
Political quotas’ effect on private-sector entrepreneurship in India, 1990–2007.
Impact of Adverse Economic Shocks on the Indian Child Labour Market
Is child labour counter-cyclical? Economic shocks and the schooling of children in poor households.
Sustainability of Economic Growth in India
with R. Kumar & A. Palit · CIGI Working Paper No. 25
Publications
Irrigation and the Spatial Pattern of Local Economic Development in India
with Blakeslee, Dar, Fishman, Malik & Pelegrina · Journal of Development Economics
The Effects of Tradable Services on Non-Tradable Services in India
with Avidu, Chaurey, Nayyar & Gaurav · India Policy Forum
Workfare Programs and Children’s Meals Intake: Evidence from India
with R. Chaurey · Food Policy
Women’s Political Representation and Educational Attainments: A District-Level Analysis in India
with F. Burchi · Journal of South Asian Development
Asset Returns in the Indian Stock Market and Its Linkages with Macroeconomic Fundamentals
with A. Kanakaraj · Revue d’économie financière
Revisiting the Empirical Existence of the Phillips Curve for India
with A. Kanakaraj & T. O. Sridevi · Journal of Asian Economics
Trends and Correlates of Remittances to India
with P. Gupta · Migration & Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis, World Bank · chapter
Contact
Open to research collaboration and consulting, with deep experience across a wide range of economic questions — the profile above shows a few. Have a different problem in mind? I’m glad to discuss new topics suited to your needs.